The Threat of the Third World War

Will Russia Dare to Start It?

Ivan Sichen

In 2007, after Vladimir Putin switched to a policy of confrontation with the West, the world again plunged into the Cold War. This time between the Russian Federation and the USA and Europe. In 2014, with the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the confrontation between the parties reached a qualitatively new level. Subsequently, after Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine in 2022, it became particularly acute. In the autumn of 2023, the Kremlin’s actions turned into direct provocations of conflicts in other regions of the world in order to divert the attention of the USA, NATO and the EU from the events in Ukraine. Around the same time, China provoked another outbreak of tensions around Taiwan. Thus, Moscow and its main partner Beijing are trying to divert the West’s attention from Ukraine and disperse its efforts and resources. For Russia, this became critical at the time due to Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

In 2024, Russia seized the initiative on the front, but was unable to achieve any strategic successes. Today, it is threatening with a new attack on Kyiv, Kharkiv and other Ukrainian cities, but it will again lack the strength to do so. Despite the possible escalation of hostilities, Russia is approaching its defeat, which will lead to the end of the Putin regime. He personally cannot allow such a development, therefore he threatens with a new world war, even with the use of nuclear weapons. As Putin once said: “Why do we need the world if Russia is not in it?”

So, will Russia start the Third World War? Many are still not ready to believe in this, as they did not believe, for example, that Russia would attack Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. And Russia’s full-scale war against our country, launched in 2022, is still called the “conflict in Ukraine” by some. It is understandable, because neither the United States nor Europe aspires to a direct military confrontation, let alone a war with the Russian Federation. The understandable concern about such a threat is reinforced by the betrayal of some American and European politicians, who are either bribed by Russia or pursuing their own political goals. Here we can mention former US President Donald Trump, Prime Ministers of Hungary Viktor Orbán and of Slovakia Robert Fico, some leaders of European political forces with a nationalist and pro-Russian orientation.

Something similar was observed in the 1930s and 1940s on the eve of World War II. At that time, the USSR did its best to start a world war in order to take control of Europe, as one of the stages of the implementation of Moscow’s plans for world domination. That is why Moscow actually supported Hitler’s regime in Germany when he annexed Austria, occupied Czechoslovakia, and later Poland. In turn, as part of the Soviet-German division of Europe, Berlin at that time agreed to the Soviet occupation of the Baltic States, Finland, and part of Romania.

The USA, Great Britain and France actually distanced themselves from such processes, choosing a position of self-isolation. In the cases of Austria and Czechoslovakia, nothing was done at all. After the occupation of Poland, which had security guarantees from London and Paris, Great Britain and France declared war on Germany, but did not open active hostilities against it. Moscow actually got away with attack on Poland, the occupation of the Baltic States and parts of Romania. For the attack on Finland, the USSR was expelled from the League of Nations and a “moral embargo” was imposed… At the same time, the collective West of that time forced Finland to stop resistance and cede some territories to the attacker. This is how the leading Western countries tried to avoid a major war in Europe and the world.

Everyone remembers that the policy of appeasement did not give the desired results, and the great war did start. First, Germany defeated France, then captured Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway, and began preparations for the invasion of Great Britain. In 1941, Germany attacked the Soviet Union. And in six months, Japan, Germany’s ally, attacked the US naval base in Pearl Harbor. The USA was forced to enter the war, which now reached a global scale.

However, some lessons of history have been learned. Today, Western countries and international organizations provide financial and military assistance to Ukraine. At this, they do not demand that our country capitulate to Russia. However, such assistance cannot be considered sufficient, because it does not allow Ukrainian troops to carry out an effective counteroffensive and effectively counter Russian missiles and UAVs. And once again, some leaders of Western countries justify the restrictions on the supply of weapons to Ukraine with the desire to prevent the outbreak of a European and world war. They forget again that in case of Ukraine’s defeat, they would not be able to prevent the outbreak of a new world war.

The Russian Federation does not hide its goals and openly expresses its intentions to take under its control the entire sphere of influence of the former Soviet Union in Europe. At this, Putin even threatens to use nuclear weapons. No matter how suicidal the Russian dictator’s statements are, his hands are already completely covered in blood, and he has no plans to stop.

How can Russia achieve its goals? First of all, it needs to reach the borders with the Baltic States and Central-Eastern Europe. This would create starting positions for further military invasion of Europe. In the north, the Russian Federation borders on Norway and Finland. Further, Russia borders on Estonia and Latvia, and through Kaliningrad region — on Lithuania and Poland. Besides, Belarus borders on northern Poland. Being under the full control of Moscow, Belarus can provide its territory for the deployment of offensive groups of Russian troops. Ukraine already had such a sad experience in 2022.

The situation is different with southern Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. The territory of Ukraine protects them from the Russian Federation. That is why Putin’s regime is trying to seize the entire territory of Ukraine, or at least the eastern and southern parts of our country. The rest of Ukraine would be turned into a satellite state like Belarus. Such intentions were made public by Russian politicians back in 2014, in particular, by the leader of the Liberal-Democratic (in fact, national-chauvinist) Party Vladimir Zhirynovsky. As you know, he was the “mouth” of the Putin regime and repeatedly voiced its plans. For example, Zhirynovsky proposed that Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania annexed the western and southwestern regions of Ukraine. This would allow Russia to come closer to the borders of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

However, the mentioned intentions of the Kremlin are only one of the components of Russia’s larger plans. In case of destruction of Ukraine as an independent state, Russia would gain control over its demographic, military and economic resources, which would significantly increase its ability to carry out aggression against Europe. The practice of using the resources of occupied territories is already widely used by Russia in the occupied territories of Ukraine. In the so-called “DPR/LPR” and in Crimea, the mobilization of men began as early as 2014, and in 2022 it became total. Mobilization is now being prepared in the territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions captured by Russia. Enterprises in the occupied territories are transferred to the production of military products for the Russian army. Migrants from Central Asia are also being sent to the war against Ukraine, whom Russia first invited to work and issued Russian passports, and later recruited to the army.

Moscow did the same in 1930–1940, after the capture and annexation of eastern Poland and the Baltic States. Local residents immediately began to be mobilized into the Red Army, and then thrown into battle against Germany in the first echelon of the Soviet troops. Men from Central Asian countries occupied by Moscow in the 1920s were also sent to the Red Army en masse. Most of them did not even realize where they were and against whom and for what they were fighting. This practice is not Moscow’s latest invention. Residents of the occupied territories were forcibly recruited to its army by another historical predecessor of the modern Russian Federation — the Mongol-Tatar horde…

Thanks to Ukrainian resources, the Russian army would be able to form 10–15 full-fledged armies or army corps, which demonstrates the experience of the “DPR/LPR”. Back in 2014–2015, the 1^st and 2^nd Army Corps were formed there, which were initially part of the Command of the territorial troops of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, and then were subordinated to the 8^th Combined Arms Army. It is the 1^st and 2^nd Army Corps that Russia directs to the hottest areas of the front, sparing no part of its personnel.

Another example is the 810^th Marine Brigade and the 126^th Coastal Defense Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. They are mainly staffed by residents of occupied Crimea, primarily active and former Ukrainian military who defected to the Russian side or received Russian passports after the occupation of the Peninsula. Due to huge losses of personnel, these brigades have already been completely renewed more than once.

The Russian Federation has not yet achieved its goals of capturing the entire territory of Ukraine, but has already begun deploying additional troops against NATO countries. Thus, the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts, which at one time were united into a single Western Military District, have been restored as part of the Russian Armed Forces. The Leningrad Military District, together with the Northern Fleet (in 2014 it received the status of the Joint Strategic Command, and is now subordinate to the Leningrad District) are directed against the Baltic States, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Moscow Military District — against Poland.

It is planned to deploy an army corps (with headquarters in Karelia) in the Leningrad Military District. According to some reports, the 11^th Army Corps of the Northern Fleet is being reformed into an army. In the 6^th Combined Arms Army (with headquarters in St. Petersburg) of the former Western and now Leningrad Military District, it is planned to create two divisions on the base of two motorized rifle brigades. At least one more combined army is planned to be created in the Moscow Military District. Two additional divisions will be formed in the Airborne Forces.

Of course, the forces and means of all military districts of the Russian Armed Forces are, as before, involved in the war with Ukraine. However, the functions of military districts are already divided between what is necessary for the front and for the military confrontation with the USA and NATO. In particular, five groups of Russian troops are engaged directly against our country. They consist of formations and units from different military districts, which are subordinate to the command of the so-called special military operation. Military districts only prepare units for the war, and at the same time ensure Russia’s strategic interests in its confrontation with the West.

Since 2022, due to the sending of significant forces and means to the front in Ukraine, strategic exercises of an anti-Western orientation in the Russian Armed Forces have not been held. The exception was only measures of operational and combat training of those naval units of the Northern and Baltic Fleets that are not participating in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Therefore, the nature of their operational and combat training actually remained unchanged. However, after the strengthening of the troops in the Leningrad and Moscow military districts, the West-type strategic exercises may be restored, but on a smaller scale. During such strategic exercises, scenarios of armed conflict/war between Russia and the USA and NATO, including with the use of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, were usually worked out. One of the elements of the strategic exercises was the task of the breakthrough of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus to Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation, with the subsequent occupation of the Baltic States and the northern part of Poland.

However, without the complete subjugation of Ukraine, Russia is unlikely to dare to attack Europe even in a limited form. After the deployment of additional units in the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts, there would still not be enough forces to attack Poland and the Baltic States. In addition, these countries are members of NATO and are subject to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on Collective Defense. And the USA and NATO have many times more military reserves than the Russian Federation. And they are deployed not only in Western Europe and the United States of America. Since 2014, the United States, together with other NATO countries, has been steadily increasing its troops in the Baltic States and Central-Eastern Europe. Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are also actively strengthening their national armies.

At the same time, even under the current situation, the risk of a military clash between Russia and the USA and NATO is not excluded. Russian missiles and UAVs, as well as their debris, have repeatedly fallen on the territory of Poland and Romania. Currently, Polish fighter jets raise the alarm in any case of the approach of Russian missiles to the borders of Poland. Negotiations are ongoing between Kyiv and Warsaw regarding Poland’s possible use of its air defense systems to destroy Russian missiles and UAVs over Western Ukraine. In addition, the US, British and French reconnaissance aircrafts systematically fly along NATO’s eastern flank (including over the Black Sea) and could very likely become targets of Russian strikes.

Besides, the Russian Federation deliberately provokes armed conflicts in different regions of the world in order to disperse the efforts of the West and divert its attention from Ukraine. Thus, the most demonstrative and large-scale in nature was the attack of the Islamic extremist movement Hamas on Israel in October 2023 and Iran’s attack of Israeli territory with the use of missiles and UAVs in April 2024. The Israel Defense Forces destroyed them in the skies over Jordan, Iraq and Syria with the help of the USA, the United Kingdom and France, which threatened to draw them into a military confrontation with Russia’s ally Iran.

In general, many military and political experts already consider these circumstances as a threat or a harbinger of the Third World War. Moreover, Russia can decide to start a major war in order to take revenge both on its opponents and on the whole world.

Today, Ukraine remains at the center of these processes, and is the main deterrent against the threat of Russia’s military invasion of Europe. In this regard, the recent approval by the US Congress of another assistance package to our country is of fundamental importance. Perhaps the allocated $61 billion is not enough to turn the tide in the war, but such support will significantly increase our ability to resist the aggressor. Therefore, Russia will not be able to attack Europe, at least in the near future, which will allow the latter to better prepare for a future attack. Therefore, assistance to Ukraine from the USA and Europe should be considered a serious investment in the general security of the Western world.