Munich Security Conference: Conclusions for Ukraine

Europe realizes what will happen to it in case of defeat of Ukraine

Ivan Sichen

Since the early 1960s, one of the main political events in the world has been the annual Munich Security Conference, which is attended by leaders, political figures and international experts from different countries. The Munich Conference discusses pressing issues of foreign security and defense policy.

Since 2014, the main issues of the Munich Conference have been Russia’s war against Ukraine and its consequences. They are completely changing the world, which has actually returned to the state of the Cold War between the USSR and the West. And even more, while last war was limited to the parties’ demonstration steps, and armed confrontation between them took place in peripheral areas — in the Middle and Far East, Afghanistan or Africa, now fighting is ongoing in Europe. And Moscow already declares its willingness to spread the war zone to NATO member states, including with using nuclear weapons.

All this was again confirmed during the Munich Security Conference, which was held on February 16–18, 2024. At this, a number of additional negative trends, that weaken Ukraine and Europe, were recognized. This is what allows Russia to achieve some success. In view of this, it is emphasized on the need to consolidate the efforts of the Western world to resolve this challenge, since the victory of the Russian Federation over Ukraine would also mean the defeat of the West.

The Munich Conference was widely covered by the media and ran central in the information space of Ukraine. So, we will get to the already proved practice and move on to the conclusions. But let us start with a brief reminder.

…Seventeen years ago, during the 2007 Munich Security Conference, V. Putin — then the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation (after a nominal rotation of the posts with D. Medvedev) — challenged the West, announcing the transition from cooperation to confrontation with the West. And the next year, 2008, Russia attacked Georgia under the pretext of “protection” of its population from Georgian authorities!

The USA and Europe ignored Moscow’s act and this eventually created the preconditions for Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2014. Unfortunately, the West again did not react properly to that attack, but just imitated its pressure on the Russian Federation in the form of sanctions. Some of them were really used, but in fact they had no significant impact on Russia. Europe continued to buy Russian oil and gas, Western companies kept working in Russia and supplying everything its economy needed. Moscow’s aggression has never been officially recognized.

This behavior of the West untied Russians’ hands, and it unleashed a full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022. After this, the USA and EU member states finally realized what the Putin regime was about, and began to impose targeted sanctions against Russia, and to provide Ukraine with financial, economic and military assistance. This restrained Russia, did not allow complete occupation of Ukraine, except for the southeastern Ukrainian territories, which were not actually defended because of someone’s criminal negligence, and in some cases as a result of betrayal.

But, at the end of 2023, the actions of the collective West somewhat changed. Pro-Russian politicians in the United States and in individual European countries are trying to block support for Ukraine, both for their own political reasons and for the sake of Russia for bribes or under pressure (of using compromising information on some politicians).

At the same time, the united Europe, which is under the direct threat of Moscow’s aggression, realizes what will happen to it in case of defeat of Ukraine. Therefore, the European Union has agreed to allocate the next aid package to Ukraine in the amount of EUR 50 billion, despite Hungarian Prime Minister’s resistance. The Czech Republic has promised to provide Ukraine with 800,000 artillery shells, and Denmark — to hand over to Ukraine all of its artillery.

The situation is worse in the USA, where the presidential election is approaching, and the confrontation between the main political forces — Democratic and Republican parties — is exacerbating. It is known that their leaders — Joe Biden and Donald Trump — are two leading presidential candidates. And Ukraine became a hostage to the interests of two election camps. At the same time, Joe Biden most likely does sincerely wish Ukraine victory and relies on the same moods of the majority of the Americans. Therefore, he advocates for further financial and military assistance to Ukraine, which is a key topic of his election campaign. It is quite clear that Donald Trump, in contrast, promotes his own principles of isolationism for the United States, as he did during his presidency in 2017–2021.

By the way, Washington’s similar policy was observed on the eve of World War II and even after its beginning, which allowed Japan to destroy part of the Pacific Fleet of the USA in Pearl Harbor in December 1941 and significantly weaken US positions in the region. The United States is at risk of repeating that mistake, but now in Europe, where, despite Trump’s hopes, the USA would not succeed in avoiding Russia’s aggression.

The content and name of the Munich Security Report — Lose-Lose? Such a vision of the current situation in the world is due to Russia’s continuing war against Ukraine and the emergence of a real threat of Russia’s attack on NATO and EU countries, as well as political problems in the United States, which have actually stopped assisting Ukraine and may refuse to fulfill its security obligations to Europe in case of Trump’s returning to the White House.

However, the situation is not so bad or pessimistic as it seems to be at first glance. In fact, Europe has agreed on the question of supporting Ukraine and ensuring its own security without the United States. Of course, it will be more complicated to do so without the USA, but it is not a task that cannot be resolved, as confirmed by the actions of the EU and individual European countries mentioned above.

All this is the key conclusions from what was discussed at the Munich Security Conference. However, I would like to consider them in more detail in the geopolitical sense. Especially as they directly concern our country. So.

The statements and actions of Donald Trump and individual politicians of the Republican Party undermine the leading positions of the United States in the world. They betray America’s interests and are actually surrender to Russia. China will take an advantage of this, that’s for sure, as it seeks the dominant position in the world. That is, if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, he still will lose in the international arena, which will have irreparable consequences for the United States. Even if, after the election and his possible victory, Donald Trump changes his positions, no one will trust the United States.

Europe is really disappointed in the United States, but does not give up. It is not able to fully compensate for its security losses, which may occur due to Trump’s policy, but it will cope with the challenge. It is more difficult for democratic countries to put their economy on a war footing than it is for totalitarian regimes, such as Russia, China or North Korea. But after they do it, their defense industry will reach higher and sophisticated levels. Unfortunately, slowly, but such a process continues and gradually accelerates. European defense companies increase manufacturing weapons and military equipment and have sufficient potential to outweigh Russia.

Most NATO members support Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration, but will agree to its membership in the Alliance only after the war. This is quite understandable because they do not want to enter a direct military confrontation with Russia. However, important steps towards Ukraine’s accession to NATO are the security agreements with NATO member states. The first agreement was concluded between Ukraine and the United Kingdom in January 2024. And against the background of the Munich Security Conference, Ukraine signed two such agreements with Germany and France. Negotiations with Italy, Denmark and Canada continue. They do not provide for the direct military involvement of our partners, but include provisions for providing comprehensive assistance to Ukraine, in the military sphere included. This will ensure further strengthening of Ukraine’s defense capability as the main guarantee of its security.

China supports Russia in its war against Ukraine and confrontation with the West, but tries to conceal it because of the threat of Western sanctions. The evidence of such a position of Beijing was the meeting of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba with his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the Munich Conference. According to Wang Yi, China does not supply Russia with weapons. Such a statement was made after the USA’s decision on the possibility of imposing sanctions on Chinese companies involved in Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The implementation of such a solution would be a precedent in the restoration of large-scale sanction pressure from the USA and the EU on China. This would have especially negative consequences for China, as it is the United States and Europe who are its main trading partners. While Russia ranks seventh or eighth in terms of bilateral trade with the PRC, even after Vietnam.

The Munich Security Conference reaffirmed the fact of international isolation of Russia, which found itself in one company with such a pariah state as North Korea. Neither Russia nor the DPRK was invited to Munich. They were represented there only by the leaders of opposition, who are abroad. For Moscow, this was another slap and demonstrates what it is really worth in the modern world. It should be reminded that the full-scale war against Ukraine was started by Russia in order to approve its role as a leading state equal to the US and China. Instead, Russia actually found itself on the periphery of international relations.

Moreover, Russia is gradually turning into not only into China’s raw material appendage, but also into a Chinese province. The economy and the defense industry of the Russian Federation depend entirely on Chinese supplies. In addition, Russia was forced to engage most of its troops, that protected the border with China, in the war against Ukraine. Therefore, Russia is not capable of fighting China’s possible offensive in any form (including in the hybrid form like the one that Moscow started against Ukraine in 2014).

Such prospects are already being realized by many of the Russian citizens. They are almost sure that the PRC will take full control of the Russian Federation. Therefore, Russian educational institutions have already begun to teach Chinese instead of English…

At the time when Russia is becoming part of the PRC, Ukraine is persistently integrating into the Western world. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s speech has become one of the central events of the Munich Conference. He voiced the whole truth about Russia’s war against Ukraine and the negative consequences of delays in Western assistance to Ukraine. The content of his speech can be characterized by the following phrase: “Do not ask Ukraine when the war will end. Ask yourself — why is Putin still able to continue it?” Volodymyr Zelenskyi discussed this issue with US Vice President Kamala Harris. And with the German company Rheinmetall a memorandum was signed on opening a plant in Ukraine for the production of artillery ammunition.

Another confirmation of the high level of the world’s attention to our country was the Ukrainian Lunch, organized by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation. The event was attended by President of the Czech Republic, Prime Ministers of Estonia, Belgium, Bulgaria and Denmark, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, as well as other politicians, former high-ranking officials, military and world-class experts.

It was stated that providing assistance to Ukraine is of particular importance to our country in the unstable global environment, when many Ukraine’s partners are dealing with internal political problems. It was said, the results of the war will depend on the decisions that the allies of Ukraine will make in the coming months. This is what will become a valid indicator of the positions of all countries that declare commitment to freedom and democracy.

In the West’s confrontation with Russia and China, the so-called Global South, which includes Latin America, South Africa and Oceania, is increasingly becoming a new arena of struggle for influence. Currently, it is there where new economic and therefore world-class political centers are being formed. Their leaders and representatives were invited to the Munich Conference and had the greatest presence there since 1962. In this way, they demonstrated their true attitude to Russia and China, which are trying to drag the Global South to their side.

The countries of the Global South are also in the sphere of interests of Ukraine. Most likely, they will not be able to affect Russia’s position significantly, but will not help it compensate for external sanctions by reorienting their trade and economic relations.

There are many more conclusions, but let’s limit ourselves to what has already been mentioned. In conclusion, I would only point out that it is really difficult for us now because of delays in the weapons supply from our partners. Because of this, we are losing our territories. But we will definitely resolve this problem. In connection with the above said, I call on all Ukrainian media: do not spread panic to increase your popularity, throwing various sensational and negative content into the information space. This will only harm Ukraine. Especially, when Russian fakes are being spread among them.