Our partners Will Only Increase Support for Ukraine

Ivan Sichen

The decisive factor influencing Ukraine’s ability to effectively counter Russia’s full-scale aggression is the support of foreign partners. As you know, this is happening in the political, economic and military-technical spheres, including provision of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine. The level and specific forms of such foreign assistance depend to great extent on Ukraine’s policy, the situation around it, on the course of hostilities and the interests of foreign partners. In fact, the same aspects affect the actions and position of Ukraine’s adversaries as well as those countries that formally maintain neutrality. All this is demonstrated by the changes in the attitude to Ukraine on the part of leading international players, which have been observed since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In previous publications, we already raised this topic, but it is worth addressing it again, given recent events and the Ukrainian troops’ preparing for a counteroffensive. It is on its results that parameters of such support for Ukraine will depend.

So, what should we expect from our foreign partners in the context of the expected counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops? The answer to this question can be given based on the analysis of the dependence of the actions of Western countries and international organizations to support Ukraine on the factors mentioned in the introduction (in particular, the policy of our state and practical steps for its implementation, the situation around it, hostilities and own interests). In principle, this is not a difficult task, because the relevant trends are quite obvious. However, for proper justification, it is necessary to analyze lots of information, which takes considerable time. Therefore, we immediately proceed to the conclusions, and then will confirm them with facts. The main of these conclusions are:

First. Successful counteraction to a full-scale Russians’ aggression demonstrates to the United States, NATO and the European Union the importance of Ukraine as one of the key factors in deterring Moscow’s aggressive policy and depleting its resources. Now Russia is completely entrenched in Ukraine, has lost most of its professional army along with relatively modern military equipment. And it cannot do anything to Europe, at least militarily. That is why Ukraine can be considered a shield for Europe and the “cornerstone” of its security.

Second. The West, taking into consideration Ukraine’s importance for itself, will try to support it under any circumstances and will never leave us face to face with Russia. Besides, the United States and Europe will never agree to any negotiations or deals with Moscow on the Ukrainian issue “behind Ukraine’s back”, will not agree to a new division of the world into spheres of influence.

Third. Western countries and international organizations actually ignore Russia in their cooperation with Ukraine, consistently crossing the “red lines” that Moscow is trying to determine. Moreover, the West not only admits the possibility of Russia’s defeat in the war with Ukraine, but also actively contributes to this. In fact, at present, the West foresees in the future the collapse of the Russian Federation.

Fourth. Despite Ukraine’s fundamental importance for the West, the level and nature of Western assistance depends and will continue to depend on the firmness of Ukraine’s position in the confrontation with Russia, success in the war, deepening of European and Euro-Atlantic integration of our country. As evidenced by quantitative and qualitative changes in military-technical assistance to our country (from small arms, MANPADS and ATGM to missile and artillery systems, armored vehicles, helicopters and aircrafts).

Fifth. According to all these indicators, Ukraine is de facto already a member of NATO. Article 5 of the Washington Treaty on collective defence does not yet officially applied to us. However, in reality it is valid. And this is not only political, economic or military-technical assistance to Ukraine, but also the service of former military and other citizens of NATO member states in international units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In this context, of great importance will be the consequences of the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops, which may soon begin and become another turning point in the war.

If Ukrainian troops manage to achieve new successes in liberating the territories of Ukraine, it will significantly stimulate the West in providing assistance to our state, including in the military-technical sphere. At the same time, it will significantly reduce possible attempts of our Western partners and other countries to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia without taking into account Ukrainian interests. According to some experts, Ukraine’s successes at the front may also affect China’s position in terms of reducing its support for Russia (or giving it up at all), as such that will have no prospects.

Otherwise, namely, the failure of the counteroffensive or its transition into positional hostilities (albeit on new frontiers, but without liberating significant territories), the West may somewhat despair in Ukraine. Of course, Western states, international organizations will continue to help Ukraine, but in some matters they may reconsider such assistance. Besides, some European countries will try to actualize the issue of resumption of negotiations with Russia on unfavorable terms for Ukraine. Finally, China will remain on Russia’s side.

Obviously, Moscow is aware of this prospect. That is why it resorts to a large-scale strengthening of its defense in the possible directions of the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops. But then, let’s hope that Russia will not be able to stop us from liberating our territory, and our Western partners will continue not only to fully support Ukraine, but will increase their assistance.

Confirmation of these conclusions is the nature of Russia’s war against Ukraine, as well as the development of the situation around it. In this regard, the course of events at the front and related political aspects can be divided into several stages, namely:

First —the period of Russia’s direct preparation for war against Ukraine in 2021. As part of such actions in the spring of 2021, under the guise of a comprehensive inspection of the RF Armed Forces, strike groups of the Russian army were formed on the territories of Russia, Belarus, occupied areas of the Donbas and the annexed Crimea, supported by naval forces consisting of ships of several fleets. In the autumn of 2021, those groups were strengthened and improved during the West-2021 strategic exercise.

At the same time, in order to have a pretext for attacking Ukraine, the Russian leadership intensified both, armed provocations in the Donbas and an information campaign accusing our state of aggression against the “DPR/LPR”. And in December 2021, Moscow issued a well-known ultimatum to the United States, NATO and Ukraine to “guarantee Russia’s security”. First of all, Moscow’s demands concerned the termination of the process of enlargement of the North Atlantic Alliance and the final refusal to grant Ukraine and Georgia NATO membership, as well as the non-deployment of strike weapons near the Russian borders. If its demands were ignored, Moscow threatened to turn Europe into a “solid battlefield”.

Despite such ultimatums, the United States, NATO and the EU continued to maintain firmness of their positions, not abandoning the chosen course. Moreover, they increased their pressure on Russia in the political, economic and military spheres in order to contain the Kremlin’s aggressive policy and prevent Russia’s full-scale offensive on Ukraine. For one, the United States, NATO and the EU made statements about the “inevitability of devastating consequences for Russia” if it decides to take such actions. The United States and the EU confirmed their intentions already in 2021, starting to impose critical sanctions against the Russian Federation.

At the same time, the United States and NATO began to actively demonstrate military power in Europe, the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions by intensifying military exercises. The most notable of them were the strategic exercise DEFENDER-Europe 21. The United States and NATO declared that exercise as a measure to support their allies and partners in the confrontation with Russia.

The United States and NATO paid special attention to strengthening Ukraine’s military potential by transferring to it a significant number of MANPADS, ATGM, small arms and ammunition, as well as various military equipment. Heavy weaponry, with the exception of a small number of American guns, was not provided. At the time, the West was not sure that Ukraine would be able to use it properly, nor did it rule out the possibility of Russia’s seizing transferred weapons.

At the same time, Washington did not give up political contacts with Moscow and cooperation with it in resolving problems that concerned the interests of both sides. Such as ensuring strategic stability in the world, combating terrorism and counteracting global climate change. Also indicative was the personal meeting of J. Biden and V. Putin in June 2021 in Geneva. The central topics of the talks were arms control issues and the threat of Russia’s new attack on Ukraine. However, due to fundamental differences between the United States and Russia, the meeting was mostly purely symbolic.

Second — at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine in February-March 2022. Despite pressure from the West, Moscow had not abandoned achieving its goals regarding Ukraine militarily. According to the Kremlin, the United States and the EU would not dare to impose real critical sanctions against Russia, especially in the face of its powerful military potential and nuclear weapons, as well as Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. At this, it was hoped that the lightning war against Ukraine would last at most two weeks, followed by the change of Ukraine’s government to the pro-Russian one. In this way, Moscow hoped to prevent the West’s negative reaction to its war against Ukraine.

Unfortunately, due to certain political reasons, Ukraine had not built reliable defense systems on its borders, had not deployed enough troops there. Therefore, Russia managed to capture the northern and northeastern Ukrainian regions, as well as the entire Azov region. For the same reason, Russia captured Kherson, Melitopol, Berdyansk and Mariupol. Someone needs to answer for that.

But even with such a development of events, the West has not left Ukraine. Immediately after a full-scale attack on our country, the United States and Europe began to impose new sanctions against Russia. Including critical ones, which included a partial rejection of Russian energy carriers, a ban on flights of Russian aircrafts in the airspace of Europe and the United States and their technical support, as well as the exclusion of key Russian banks from the SWIFT system. However, at that time, Western and other partners of Ukraine still refrained from supplying us with heavy weapons.

But then, this did not prevent Ukraine from filing an application for membership in the European Union on the fourth day of the war — February 28, 2022.

Third — after Russia’s retreat from the northern and northeastern regions of Ukraine in April 2022. The United States and Europe finally became convinced of our state’s ability to resist Russian invaders and effectively use Western weapons. Therefore, in addition to imposing new sanctions against the Russian Federation, we began to be supplied with heavy weapons.

The first meeting of the so-called Ramstein Group took place in April 2022 in the format of negotiations of Defense Ministers of more than 30 countries. At that stage, agreements were reached on the allocation of 5 billion US dollars to Ukraine for the purchase of various types of weapons and ammunition. The most important for us was getting 155-mm guns and high-precision missile systems.

In May-June 2022, the enemy still managed to capture Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. But those were its last “achievements”. Already in August-September 2022, Ukrainian troops liberated almost the entire Kharkiv region, and in October 2022 the invaders withdrew from the city of Kherson and the right-bank part of Kherson region. As a result, a turning point in the war was reached, which forced Moscow to declare partial mobilization.

Then, in September 2022, Ukraine applied to join the North Atlantic Alliance under an accelerated procedure. The application was accepted for consideration, although, of course, it could not be approved until the end of the war.

Fourth — in the winter and spring of 2023, when Russia failed its second offensive in the Donbas and Ukraine began preparations for a counteroffensive. Politically, the most important was the joint bill of the Democratic and Republican parties of the United States, which states that Ukraine must defeat Russia, restore its borders and become a member of NATO.

And militarily, we began to be supplied with tanks and armored vehicles almost en masse, including means of breaking through enemy engineering barriers. We already have enough of them for several tank and mechanized brigades. In total, about thirty of them have been prepared. F-16 fighters are already on the “approach”. They are older than the Russian Su-30 and Su-35, but they are superior to them.

In the future, our partners will only increase support for Ukraine. We have already stated  that they have much more resources than Russia. Therefore, its war of attrition of our state is doomed to failure. This is also confirmed by what is happening now in Bakhmut, even PMC Wagner mercenaries began to flee from there. Besides, Moscow has lost most of its reserves in the Donbas, which it has accumulated since last autumn.