Operation Wishful Thinking. How Putin is Lying to Russia

Ivan Sichen

March 5, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first public assessment of the Russian war against Ukraine, which he continues to call a “special operation”. It is noteworthy that this assessment was made during his meeting with air hostesses of Aeroflot – one of the Russian companies most affected by Western sanctions. Moreover, Aeroflot pilots are the primary reserve of Russian military aviation, which needs urgent replenishment due to losses in Ukraine.

We would not like to repeat on our site an outright delusion of the blood thirsty Kremlin dwarf. However, some of what the Kremlin leader said deserves attention. At least, in terms of a clearer understanding of the plans and positions of the Putin regime, as well as his views on the situation in Ukraine and around Russia. Therefore, we will analyze the main theses of Putin’s speech and give them our assessment.

As expected, the main purpose of Putin’s speech was to justify Russia’s new attack on Ukraine in the form of a full-scale war. However, he actually acknowledged the extremely difficult situation in which Russia found itself and tried to reassure Russian citizens. At this, as always, Putin’s speech was full of outright lies, especially on Russia’s military actions in Ukraine and the “successes” achieved in conducting a “special operation” on Ukrainian territory. For example, in general, the speech of the President of the Russian Federation included the following main sentences:

it was very difficult for him to decide on a “special operation” in Ukraine; however, this was necessary to ensure Russia’s security. Of course, this was difficult, especially given what such a decision would inevitably lead to. This was clearly understood by Putin himself, despite the blatant disorder of his mental state. As we can see, the consequences of his step were not long in coming, which once again confirms the absolute inadequacy of the Russian leader. How else can you perceive a person who understands the catastrophic nature of his possible actions and still does not give them up. This, and not the mythical threats from the United States, NATO and Ukraine, is a real danger to Russia;
if Ukraine continues to resist (as Putin put it, “behaves like this”), it will lose its statehood. With these words, the Kremlin leader openly acknowledged the real goals of the war against Ukraine, namely, its destruction as an independent state. By the way, Russia has been pursuing this goal since 1992, immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, while earlier political and economic methods were used for this, now Moscow has switched to the direct use of military force. But then, Russia did destroy the statehood of Ukraine more than once, but it failed to destroy Ukraine itself. The same goes for the current war. Even if Russia captures all of Ukraine, it will inevitably choke-bore.
everything is on track, the aim to destroy Ukraine’s military infrastructure and air defense system is almost reached. We wonder why Russia then has not achieved its goals, including to capture any of the major cities of Ukraine, except Kherson? And even that city it cannot control. And why then Mariupol is still not taken by Russian troops? And who then defends Ukraine in all major directions, inflicting colossal losses on the enemy? The answers are well known. Let’s just say that on the day of Putin’s speech alone, the allegedly “destroyed” air defense of Ukraine shot down five fighter jets, four helicopters and one enemy UAV. And that’s not all. According to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine O. Reznikov, in just ten days of the war, our Armed Forces received more equipment in the form of trophies taken from the enemy than from the entire Ukroboronprom over the past eight years. That is, even if Russia managed to destroy part of the barracks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with its missile and bomb strikes, it does not mean the defeat of the Ukrainian army, which not only preserved but also increased its combat effectiveness. Meanwhile, Russia has already used 90 % of the Russian troops assigned to it in the hell of the war and is forced to use its reserves;
only professional servicemen – officers and contractors – are involved in the “special operation” in Ukraine, there are no conscripts there and there are no plans to involve them. Such allegations by Putin are outright lies, which are refuted even in the Russian parliament. In particular, during a meeting of the Committee of the Federation Council on Constitutional Legislation and State Building, Russian Senator L. Narusova cited the example of a group of four conscripts leaving the combat zone in Ukraine. That’s all that’s left of a company of about 100 servicemen. Although the fact that a significant number of Russian troops in Ukraine belong to this category was known without it. It is enough to look only at the prisoners of war and everything will become completely clear. However, if only officers and contractors are involved in hostilities, it will not save the aggressor. Most of them have no motivation for the war in Ukraine either, are demoralized and in many cases surrender, even without resistance. And this is not to mention that the death of an officer or contractor is the same tragedy for his family and friends as of a conscript;
attempts by any country to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine will mean their direct participation in the armed conflict on the side of Russia’s adversary. This shows what Russia expects from the war with Ukraine, namely, to break the morale of the Ukrainian population by launching missile and bomb strikes on peaceful settlements. And this is quite understandable. Russia failed to break the leadership of Ukraine. The Ukrainian army has not been and will not be defeated. Therefore, Moscow has only one thing left – to terrorize the civilian population in order to spread chaos and panic in Ukraine. And also – in order to force Ukrainian citizens to protest against the continued resistance. It is clear that the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine will make it completely impossible for Moscow to implement such plans, and it is no longer capable of anything else. However, despite Russia’s resistance, a no-fly zone over our state can still be created. At present, this is actually supported by the US Congress, which despises threats from the Kremlin leader. Step by step, the issue of transferring to Ukraine fighter jets that were in the service of Central and Eastern European countries is also discussing, which will allow us to close our sky;
the West’s imposition of sanctions on Russia is virtually tantamount to declaring war on Russia. Finally, the Kremlin leader reached the full depth of the problems in which he drove Russia. And the first to feel them were Russian oligarchs (including Putin’s personal friends, who lost almost half of their wealth within just a few days). And this is not to mention their foreign accounts and property. Therefore, it is no coincidence that on the day of Putin’s speech, a group of leading representatives of Russian big business issued a joint statement against the war in Ukraine. Which was immediately seen by experts as a sign of conspiracy to remove Putin from power. Let’s hope so. Moreover, in addition to the losses of Russian oligarchs, the new package of Western sanctions has inflicted on Russia such losses that can be compared with the consequences of the war. Again, we will not retell the content of the sanctions themselves, nor what they cost the Russian Federation and the Putin regime directly. We will just mention – so far sanctions, generally, were applied only against financial sector of Russia and practically didn’t affect its oil and gas export. Now it is its turn. At war as at war;
Russia’s leadership does not intend to impose a state of emergency or martial law in the country. The Kremlin may not have such intentions, but one way or another it will have to do it. For some reason, it is believed that the Russian people are not capable of protesting against the Putin regime. This is not the case at all, as shown in particular by: mass protests against the falsification of the results of the 2012 presidential election in Russia; anti-war rallies in 2014; a series of rallies in the Russian regions in 2017–2019 in connection with the decline in living standards; rallies and demonstrations in Khabarovsk and the Khabarovsk Territory in 2020 due to the arrest by Moscow’s special services of local governor S. Furgal (which in fact showed signs of conflict between local and federal authorities); a wave of protests in Moscow and other Russian cities in early 2021 after the arrest of one of the opposition leaders, A. Navalny. And then there was the war and the real prospect of socio-economic collapse in Russia, similar to the collapse of the early 1990s, and even worse. And now all this is there, in addition to the thousands of bodies of dead Russian servicemen who are “returning” from Ukraine. By the way, the “first bell” for Putin has already sounded in the form of anti-war protests on March 6, 2022. Literally on the second day after his speech on the “special operation” in Ukraine.