Ukraine and Moldova: Geopolitical Perspectives

Partners and Allies in the Post-Soviet Space

 

 

Ivan Sichen

 

2021 marks the 30th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite Russia’s attempts to restore a certain resemblance to the USSR in one form or another, during the mentioned period the situation in the post-Soviet space is completely opposite. In fact, Moscow has been able to retain within its relative influence only a limited number of countries that have become its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union. As of today, those countries are Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Other former Soviet republics have taken neutral or non-aligned positions, become members of NATO and the EU, or have chosen a course of European and Euro-Atlantic development. As you know, the first of these groups includes Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the second — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and the third — Ukraine, Georgia and to some extent Moldova.

Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova are creating an alternative to Russia, an integration center for the territories of the former Soviet Union

It is the countries of the third group that are of special importance for Ukraine as allies in the struggle to achieve their strategic goals. Under such circumstances, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova are, actually, creating an alternative to Russia, an integration center for the territories of the former Soviet Union and are an example for other former Soviet republics. At the same time, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have a number of common challenges, primarily related to Russia’s aggressive policy to regain control over them. Since the early 1990s, Moscow’s main policy has been to exert comprehensive pressure on Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, to undermine their internal stability, and to provoke armed conflicts with subsequent intervention of Russian troops. This is exactly what Russia has done in the Donbas in Ukraine, in Transdniestria in Moldova, and in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.

In order to jointly realize and protect their interests, in 1999 Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova established the GUAM group, which was joined by Azerbaijan. For some time Uzbekistan was also a member of the group. In 2006, the group was transformed into a new international structure, the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development — GUAM, with broader tasks and functions.

Another international platform that allows Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova to jointly pursue their interests, is the European Union’s Eastern Partnership, which was launched in 2009 at the initiative of Poland and Sweden. Today, the Eastern Partnership is an international initiative with the participation of the EU and six countries of the former USSR (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan).

 

…Moldova is Ukraine’s “gateway” to Southeast Europe and the Balkans…

At this, Moldova is Ukraine’s “gateway” to Southeast Europe and the Balkans, as well as an important transportation hub in the region. For example, a significant part of Ukraine’s transport communications on the mentioned direction passes through Moldova. Moreover, the relevant international highways from Russia, China and Asia go to Moldova via Ukraine. That is why Moldova plays an important role in ensuring Ukraine’s foreign trade and transit through Ukraine of goods from other countries, including within the framework of the strategic Chinese initiative “Belt and Road”.

In the future, Moldova may become one of the connecting links between Ukrainian and the European energy systems. Today, Moldova’s gas infrastructure is already connected to Romania’s gas transportation system, and through it — to the EU gas network. In addition, with the financial support of the European Union, steps are being taken to unite the electrical systems of Romania and Moldova. Implementation of such plans creates technical possibilities for reverse gas supplies from Europe to the southern regions of Ukraine, and if necessary — to meet the urgent needs of our state in electricity (in particular, in case of accidents at Ukrainian power plants).

Also Moldova is a market for Ukrainian-made industrial goods and a source of certain agricultural products from Ukraine. Thus, in 2020, trade between Ukraine and Moldova amounted to about 900 million US dollars. This is slightly less than in previous years, but solely because of the effects of global economic problems due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ukraine supplies Moldova with metal products, electrical machines, fuels and lubricants, electricity, food and pharmaceuticals, and construction materials. Moldova exports to Ukraine crop products, wine and ethyl alcohol.

…Ukraine for Moldova is an important partner in the economic, political and security spheres, and a counterweight (or alternative) to Russia and Romania…

Finally, Ukraine is an important partner of Moldova in the economic, political and security spheres. In fact, on all these issues, Ukraine is for Moldova an alternative (or counterweight) to Russia and Romania, which are expanding on the Moldovan direction.

All this creates a basis for building a strategic partnership between Ukraine and Moldova both, within international organizations and at the bilateral level. Based on the mutual interests of the two countries, the main spheres for further strengthening such a partnership may be: deepening cooperation between the parties on the path to European and Euro-Atlantic integration and in counteracting Russia’s aggressive policy; development of cooperation in trade, economic, energy and transport spheres; strengthening border security.

In the future, the possibility of building some form of union relations between Ukraine and Moldova is not ruled out. In particular, this issue has already been considered in the GUAM group’s development plan.

 

In this context, the change of government in Moldova in December last year and the election of the leader of the pro-European Action and Solidarity Party M. Sandu was of positive significance. At this, her victory over the incumbent (then) President of Moldova I. Dodon, who was a pro-Moscow protege and leader of the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, was very important.

Russia actually lost another round of the struggle for Moldova

As a result, Russia actually lost another round of the struggle for Moldova. Thus, immediately after taking office, President M. Sandu began resuming Moldova’s active course of European integration, and also called for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria.

She also expressed her intention to give a new impetus to Moldova’s relations with Ukraine. Manifestation of this was M. Sandu’s official visit to Ukraine in January this year, which was her first foreign visit as President of Moldova. Thus, M. Sandu actually confirmed Ukraine’s strategic importance for Moldova. Equally important were the results of talks between the leaders of the two countries. Thus, agreements were reached on intensifying the actions of the parties on: bringing relations between Ukraine and Moldova to a qualitatively new level; developing a strategy for joint economic and political projects; coordination of efforts on the way to the EU (including within the framework of the Eastern Partnership initiative); facilitating transit and transportation.

M. Sandu’s official visit to Ukraine was her first foreign visit as President of Moldova

At this, among the most important joint projects were mentioned: construction of a modern highway between Kyiv and Chisinau and a new bridge across the Dniester River; increasing the volume of Moldova’s natural gas stocks in Ukrainian storage facilities; developing an infrastructure for the transit of European gas to Ukraine through Moldova; resumption of Ukrainian electricity transit to Romania through Moldovan power lines.

As another sphere of cooperation between Ukraine and Moldova was determined to strengthen the security at the common border and provide mutual assistance in resolving conflicts on the two countries’ territories. In particular, Ukraine supports Moldova’s demands to withdraw Russian troops from Transdniestria. For its part, Ukraine expects Moldova to participate in the Ukrainian initiative to establish an international Crimean Platform.

Based on the common nature of the strategic interests of Ukraine and Moldova, as well as their partners from among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the intentions to strengthen cooperation in creation of the so-called Trimarium (or “Three Seas Initiative”) were confirmed. The aim of such plans is to unite the countries of the regions from the Baltic to the Adriatic and the Black Sea as a de facto “sanitary cordon” along Russia’s western border.

 

Implementation of these plans will contribute to the realization of the common interests of Ukraine and Moldova, as well as strengthening of their international and regional positions. However, today there are some challenges and obstacles in achieving these goals. First of all, the instability of the situation in Moldova, which does not allow it to clearly adhere to the European course, and thus to maintain stable and mutually beneficial relations with Ukraine. The reason for this is the persistence of pro-Russian and leftist views among a large part of the Moldovan population, as well as the spread of separatist sentiments in some regions of the country (Transdniestria and Gagauzia).

Russia is trying to maintain its influence in Moldova

In turn, this is used by Russia to maintain its influence in Moldova. Thus, immediately after Sandu’s victory, Moscow took active steps to destabilize the situation in Moldova by using the Russian lobby in the country’s parliament and government, as well as in its oligarchic circles. At this, the possibility of calling early parliamentary elections in Moldova is being considered, which would give Russia a chance to increase the number of its supporters in the highest legislative body of the Republic. Besides, Russian politicians have raised the possibility of an escalation of the Transdniestrian conflict, which will require increased Russian military intervention to “stabilize the situation” in the region.

Through such actions, Moscow is also trying to influence the situation in and around Ukraine. First of all, this concerns the negative consequences of the problems related to the Transdniestrian conflict for the neighboring regions of Ukraine and its state interests. In particular, they include the sources of instability, cross-border crime (including smuggling and illegal migration), as well as unresolved issues of delimitation of the Transdniestrian part of the Ukrainian-Moldovan border. At the same time, the nature of relations between Ukraine and Moldova, and hence the Ukrainian position in the northwestern part of the Black Sea region, objectively depend on changes in the Moldovan government.

…Certain problems for Ukraine may be created by disagreements with Romania over the influence on Moldova…

Certain problems for Ukraine may be created by disagreements with Romania over the influence on Moldova. For example, Romania actually sees Moldova as its “historic lands” that was lost as a result of the USSR’s aggression in 1940. That is why Bucharest pursues a policy of gradual reintegration of Moldova into its political, economic and security systems, including through the support for its European course.

 

However, all these problems are not critical and can be resolved both at the level of bilateral relations between Ukraine and Moldova, and in various formats of cooperation within the above-mentioned international organizations. Thus, even under the pro-Russian President I. Dodon in Moldova, Chisinau did not escalate relations with Ukraine, including not recognizing the “DPR” and “LPR” and the “Russian status” of Crimea, and in no way restricted trade and economic ties between the two countries. In fact, such restrictions applied only to the European aspirations of two countries.

…The Moldovan direction can become one of the priorities of Ukraine’s regional policy…

On a mutually advantageous basis contradictions between Ukraine and Romania over Moldova can also be resolved. Romania is currently a member of the European Union, and Ukraine and Moldova are seeking membership. At this, the EU is a union of countries with a common policy and economy and, in fact, without internal borders, which creates preconditions for resolving problems between European countries. That is why the Moldovan direction can become one of the priorities of Ukraine’s regional policy. This will mark the beginning of Ukraine’s rise to the level of one of the leaders in the Black Sea region and South-Eastern Europe.

 

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